Big things are coming to Linux in 2024, but don't expect too much…
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#Linux #linux2024 #linuxdesktop #linuxdistro #opensource
Timecodes:
00:00 Intro
00:41 Sponsor: Squarespace
01:42 Goodbye X11
04:00 Open Source Nvidia for everyone
05:52 10% market share with ChromeOS added
07:33 Gaming: more Linux gaming devices
10:11 Packaging formats: still messy
11:37 Immutable distros: not mainstream
12:51 App support: no changes
13:57 Parting thoughts
15:27 Sponsor: Tuxedo Computers
16:25 Support the channel
First, X.org will be even more abandoned. I’m not saying every distro will drop it entirely, but I’m expecting way more distributions and desktops to announce in 2024, that X.org won’t be a supported platform anymore in 2025, or at the very least won’t be the default session.
I would be surprised if, in 2024, Ubuntu didn’t announce something similar for the following year.
The second thing I think we’ll see is a fully open source stack for nvidia being available for Linux users. With the Linux kernel 6.7 bringing support for the GSP firmware, letting Nvidia GPUs be reclocked by the open source Nouveau drivers, and NVK now part of Mesa, and providing decent performance already, I’d say 2024 will be the year where Nvidia users can finally enjoy a good experience on Linux without anything extra to install.
In terms of market share, we’ve seen some healthy growth in 2023, ending the year on a potentially anomalous 3.8%, the highest the Linux desktop has ever been. In 2024, I’d expect this trend to continue: people don’t seem to enjoy WIndows 11 that much, and they already didn’t enjoy Windows 10 all that much either, and with Microsoft cramming more and more ads in their OS, and potentially moving to a subscription based model for Windows 12, I’d expect more people to give Linux a go, and mathematically, some of them will stick with it.
All in all, I don’t think we’ll jump to something like 8 or 10%, but I’d be surprised if the Linux desktop didn’t reach 5 or 6% on its own, and about 10% combined with Chrome OS.
I would also expect 2024 to see a standalone release of SteamOS for any computer, and I’d say our market share will probably rise to about 3, maybe 3 and a half percent, but it won’t be a major change, and the situation in terms of how many games we can play will be relatively stable, with major names still missing.
Now let’s talk about the things I feel will stay exactly the same in 2024: starting with packaging formats. What we might see is more distros deciding to provide specific apps using the official snap or flatpak, like RHEL is doing with LibreOffice, because for some apps, it simply makes no sense to repackage them all the time, but that won’t change the status quo.
Same thing for what we generally call Immutable distributions. I don’t think they’ll gain that much popularity in 2024, because they’re often linked to using either flatpak or snap, or Nix packages, can’t forget about Nix or I’ll get comments again, and since we’re not making these formats the only choice any time soon, I don’t think this group of Linux distros will conquer the general Linux desktop audience either.
As per app support, that’s another area where I feel we’re not going to see much progress. And I’m talking big name apps, like Office, the Adobe Suite, Autocad, and the like. Even if my predictions for Linux market share come true, the potential revenue from supporting Linux is still low and will still be low, compared to the effort of porting the app, finding a packaging format that allows you to do everything you want, and then supporting that version.
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I'm just gonna say it: rumors have abounded about Microsoft "considering" making Windows a subscription license model since, I think, at least Windows 8, and it's not happened yet. I'm not going to say it won't happen, just that this has been around the rumor mill more than a few times and should be taken with a grain of salt.
In short, I'll believe it when they actually announce it, or at bare minimum, there's a credible source from within Microsoft or with close ties to them saying it's going to happen.
(to be clear, this is not a defense of or condemnation of Microsoft and Windows; it's simply about the current facts as we know them)
AFAIK, debian is not dropping x11. And if it's in debian, x11 still has years of availability ahead.
Idk what is the reason why these multiplayer games refuse to anti cheat support linux if they're going to support linux later anyway -_-
Sorry, all kudos to Linux, but it will never be more than a distant 3rd place as desktop.
Nice video, thanks 🙂
Wouldn't it save NVIDIA money to just officially support the open source drivers with the goal of deprecating the closed source drivers?
6:50 Sorry but no. There is no way you could run many AAA games (especially GPU heavy 3d games) on Linux with similar performance as on Windows.
Many "desktop users" have installed Windows because of gaming. No matter how you tinker with Wine and its derivatives, Linux will not replace Windows in that (unless MS tries something crazy like "Windows SaaS", which will throw away people no matter what).
Linux community should learn from Haiku
YES LINUX ALL DAY BABY, but please can hirerachy filesystem change, modify, or rewrite the code to make ease use for All users?
Imho more upcoming (PvP) games will use anticheat at kernel level and not less. Because gamers realize that the sole option of a half way safe anticheat system requires full rights at kernel level to begin with.
And the reason why Linux won't see any support for these games anytime soon is the low market share. It's not economical from the current perspective to support Linux for Anticheat at kernel level, because that doubles the workload (if not tripples, because the Linux users tend to have much more control over their system and thus can hide stuff better…but that is just my humble oppinion here). All that for the 1-2% minority that won't run any windows OS ain't paying out.
Until Wayland fixes such crap as cursor tearing or the session not even loading properly – yes, under my !RX 570! (and they say Linux is way better on AMD, it might be, but certainly not Wayland here) – it's simply unusable here. No matter the forced propaganda.
I primarily use Linux through ChromeOS in the past 5 yrs, and on my Android phone, but have been using Linux since the release of Vista…
I migrated FULL TIME since I got my laptop, the switch for my desktop running Win7 become obvious.
The KDE experience is really on another level once you tune it the way you need to get stuff done.
Wayland is also very promising and smooth but I have ethical concerns for the long run. X11 is doing its job fine despite the bothering limitations so losing a solution like that in the future can be an issue since most of the coding knowledge will be lost.
The FOSS drivers will definitively be a welcome for Libre Oriented distros.
Having various package managers is a strength in the way it prevent all the distro to suffert from an abitrary stupid change if 1 format dominate all software distrib (example of the direction of proprietary stores). Look how much the WinOS ecosystem turned toxic these years and are planning to make it even more paintful with their payed sub system.
I was looking at Tuxedo laptops for VFX. Only thing that looks bad to me, is that they only have 90 sRGB, whereas some Razer Windows mobile workstations have full P3 colourspace. I know it's a bit niche but would be amazing if they supported it!
I moved to linux desktop 3 years ago ( ignoring Raspberry Pi) I haven't missed Windows once. I bought a Tuxedo Laptop as my new dailydriver year ago and it is awesome.
If microsoft really makes windows 12 subscription based they are stupid and have completely lost the plot.
Nobody will use windows anymore. gg.
DEPRECATED????????????????????? Why do I keep seeing this? It's not DEPRECATED, it's DEPRECIATED
Deprecate means to talk bad about someone or something. Depreciate (in software) means to mark as no longer recommended and having been replaced by something better. Like for instance a depreciated API function which is still kept for backward compatibility but has been replaced by a new function.
I run Mint Cinnamon. I don't play games. My 11700k with 32 GB of RAM is fine for editing 4k videos with Shotcut. I'm not moving to 21.3 yet, because 21.2 does the job. At the moment for me, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
I switched from windows 7 to Ubuntu in 2012, then Ubuntu to arch in 2014. And then never cared about any other OS since.
Also switched from xorg to Wayland in 2024. Not yet so sure about that
I'm new to Linux. Is it hard to make windows remember where I placed them? I move them to the center of the screen, and every time I reopen them, they open at the top left. Why would that not be an important detail to implement out of the box? Also, the one thing that comes to mind is for new users, why is it that apps do not come with self installation? Not everyone wants to use commands. Is it the software developers who don't want to spend the extra time making it install or is it something to do with the OS? I am aware of flat packs repositories and snaps, but I get the feeling that I am not likely to find the apps I'm interested in are not going to be there, or they are old buggy versions, and coming from Windows, I am used to finding the app online, downloading it and installing it. Why can't this be done on Linux? It would make transitioning way easier. I know some apps do work like this, but there also seems to be an acceptance of just having to learn a bunch of commands and complex steps that is really standing in the way of just using the OS. Not everyone wants to learn all of this. Not everyone who uses Windows has to take a course on DOS in order to use Windows. I have looked at 4 or 5 Distros, and I really like them, but I'm just looking for some helpful insight about Linux. Thanks for any helpful info.
The issue with package managers isn't that each distro family has their own, the issue is that there is really no such thing as a reference Linux distro, real or imaginary, so developers have no way of knowing how to list dependencies because every distro does it's own thing. This is why traditionally distros were in charge of creating and maintaining packages, because there were the only ones who knew which of there packages had which dependencies. Flatpak and snap "fix" this be creating a reference infrastructure but this causes users to have to have not only the libraries their distro maintains but also the library packages that Flatpak or snap add. AppImage just says forget it and you package everything every time. The solution isn't the creation of universal packages packages, but the creation of a reference package with dependancies mapped to a reference set of packages that distros can map to, thus allowing for libraries to be automatically mapped between distros.
I know it's a crazy idea but it would be much more efficient that what we have now
snap packs suck!!!
We lose some functionality with Wayland that we had in X11.
I am a retired old Faxt and a Linux user. I started in hardware and software before Linus Torvalds was born and before he rereleased his first linux system I also like new technology hardware. I am also a limited budget user.
I know/believe that in the medium time future (3 years), current design silicon based SSDs will be relatively inexpensive, and that we will probably have new SSD technology that will be using magnetic bit arrays. These array devices, already in the lab, are faster than current SSDs, and will give us a new acronym for devices offering multiples of terrabytes. With magnetic technology, we may even see on chip raid systems for home computers. As for Linux, if the forecast is for very large capacity devices, data centres will be the first customers. I imagine as well, these SSD devices will be available and used for home-system archiving.
With these magnetic bit chips, why not keep 10 years of photos, tax receipts, etc if the 10x terrabyte "magnetic" based SSDs become economically available.
There is also some thought to replacing ram with these devices. 64gig or 128gig cpus are within affordable reach for the masses.
On the downside of magnetic bit technology, is the danger from spurious magnetic fields, that could cause erasure, or bit-flipping. The SSDs will most likely be packages with magnetic shielding to protect against undersired consequences.
In the AMD world, there was posted, available 8 cpu high speed DDR4 chip technology that includes graphics technology, all for $200 or less. The ddr5 or later chip design technology is unfortunately five times more expensive than the DDR4 version.
As for AI, expect that technology to come when larger capacity ram is made available.
Will there be further improvements in communication technology? Will we continue with in-building wiring, or will we have home mesh networks as default technology. I can envisage going to the computer store and signing up for a mesh system, and leaving the store with some adapters. On arriving at home, all that is necessary is to plug the adapters into the wall power outlet, and it will communicate with the telephone companies distribution system, in a similar way that we currently use cellphones.
We live on the cusp of exiting times. I wish I was 20 years younger, to be able to experience all the forthcoming technology changes.
immutable is a buzzword that will fall out of favour, come back in 2 years to see if I am right
2024 will be the year of the Linux desktop
Linux will only work when executables are a thing and are standardized, until then I don't see it being adopted by the general public
I love Linux, but I'm about to install Windows on my parents' internet PC because the Manjaro installation just magically decided that it can't update anything no matter what after working great for a few years. I haven't seen that level of update issues in Windows since about 2016. I'm honestly tired of the "Linux is perfect" crowd. Nothing is perfect, especially if you can use a clean installation for like two years and it just decides to become incapable of installing any kind of update. At least it doesn't make the OS unbootable like Windows would. Let's face it, Windows can be frusturating to use in a lot of ways, but it really is the untimate "it just works" OS. For example, it took a lot of effort to get my printer connected to Manjaro, where in contrast, on Windows, you search for your printer and it automatically sets it up within a minute. Maybe I just have Linus Sebastian levels of luck with Linux?
why are you SHOUTING AT ME ? !!!!!
This is sad news about X11. Wayland is awful.
there are some problems with wayland currently. so gui library automation tools doesnt work well. so i switch to X again.
Gaming was the only thing keeping me from going full Linux, then I got a steam deck, so thats all my needs 90% sorted
stop saying linÜx
I've built X from source before and ran it and I'll do it again if need be. Wayland can put an egg in its shoe. There's no way I'd give up even one percent of performance to run open source Nvidia drivers either. Aww snap.
Why does everyone hate Flatpak? They say it takes up more storage space, but storage space is so cheap these days, so I don't get it. Thanks. 🙂
Chrome os only matters when it comes to soothing your ego about market share 😂😂😂😂😂
In a way the 5% or 10% could be added the combined Android share of devices, plus the embedded Linux devices. What would that be? 😉
I don't really 'follow' distros but it makes me happy to know that people are going to drop X11 or anything that has to do with X. Wayland just looks so much better and makes everything look better.
When Wayland supports screensavers, I will accept Wayland.
People already want to move from windows but the gaps that stopping them is software compatibility & the marketing of linux. Don't get me wrong the marketing is good but it needs that BIG step that challenges the big players.
I know firstly we have to tackle technical issues first.
Windows 10 die date is coming up soon Oct 2024.